Machine Learning models’ ultimate goal is making reliable predictions on new, unknown data. With this purpose in mind, we want our algorithm to capture relations in existing data and replicate them among new entries. At the same time, we do not want our algorithm to have, let’s say, prejudices because of the data it trained on.

In the first case, we are trying to reduce the bias of our model, which is the difference between the average prediction and the actual value. In the second case, we are trying to reduce the variance, which captures the fluctuations of predictions around the mean value. Both the measurements concur in increasing the error of our model, but, unfortunately, they are negatively correlated: you cannot decrease the one without increasing the other.



A learning curve is the plot of the training/cross-validation error versus the sample size. The learning curve can be used to detect whether the model has the high bias (underfitting) or high variance (overfitting). If the model suffers from high bias problem, as the sample size increases, training error will increase and the cross validation error will decrease.
If the model suffers from overfitting, more samples will help to improve the model prediction performance if the model suffer from high variance.

http://www.holehouse.org/mlclass/10_Advice_for_applying_machine_learning.html
see also learning curves
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“A model is done when nothing else can be taken out.” — Dyson










